What Drives Russian Popular Support of War in Ukraine?
What Drives Russian Popular Support of War in Ukraine?
Taking a Holistic Attitude to Popular Opinion in Russia
According to Neringa Klumbytė at the Atlantic Council, despite some anti-war protests that briefly appeared early on, Russian popular opinion appears to remain largely supportive of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. As of September 2023, the Levada Center had reported an approval rate of 70%.
Blaming the Kremlin’s propagandistic influences for Russian popular opinion on the war risks removing the agency of the people. Rather, Russia’s past and the "imperial intimacy" it has shared with Ukraine guides opinion on the war.
Imperial intimacy, a concept developed by scholars such as Cole, Coelho, and Carby, denotes interfamilial relationship, projected domestic culture, and paternalistic attachment stemming outwards in an inherently contradictory manner from the imperial metropole.
Taking a Holistic Attitude to Popular Opinion in Russia cont.
To address the situation, one cannot accept change to stop at the top level. The attitude of the Russian people towards their imperial past must be altered, and Russian patriotism must be disassociated with imperial domination, as noted by the author.
* NOTE: many experts suggest that polling in Russia is currently unreliable given the current criminalization of criticizing the regime and its war in Ukraine.
The Complications of Popular Support of the Russian Military
Joshua Askew, reporting for Euronews, stated that in October 2023, the Levada Center found that only 34%of the Russian public would support an end to the war with Ukraine if the occupied Ukrainian territory had to be returned.
Levada Center surveys had 76% of respondents supporting Russia’s military actions in Ukraine generally, while 56% supported starting peace talks now.
When asked if they would go back in time to stop the war if it were possible, nearly equal numbers reported they either would (41%) or would not (43%).
The Complications of Popular Support of the Russian Military cont.
Askew highlights the complications of ascertaining Russian popular opinion on the war, as the information they are fed from the government is highly contained, partially leading to respondents believing the primary function of the war is the protection of the Donbas. However, 69% of respondents between the ages of 18-24 were in favour of ending the conflict.
* NOTE: many experts suggest that polling in Russia is currently unreliable given the current criminalization of criticizing the regime and its war in Ukraine.
The Driving Factors of Russian Support for the War
Sergei Guscha, writing for DW, quotes Lev Gudkov, head of the Levada Center, in answering why more Russians are not opposing the war in Ukraine. Gudkov’s explanations are twofold.
Firstly, Russian censorship prevents access to independent online news sources, which means that most Russians are unaware of accurate information about Russian military deaths, which are more widely reported in Western media.
The Driving Factors of Russian Support for the War
Secondly, Gudkov notes the dominance of economic concerns for most Russians. Rising oil prices and wartime economic mobilization have allowed for select groups, such as soldiers, to enjoy higher pay, reducing unrest.
Additionally, while high inflation rates are affecting most Russians, who identify rising prices as their chief concern, many do not draw the connection between inflation and high military spending.
* NOTE: many experts suggest that polling in Russia is currently unreliable given the current criminalization of criticizing the regime and its war in Ukraine.