Conflicts to Watch in 2024

Russia-Ukraine

• The Russia-Ukraine conflict remains at a virtual standstill, with minimal movement on the 600-mile front. This battlefield situation is pivotal for determining Europe's future safety and stability.

• Russia is strategically preparing for a protracted conflict. Despite Western sanctions, Moscow is using windfall energy profits to bolster its military, consolidating power within and rewarding loyalists. The Kremlin's plan involves President Putin tying the war to traditional values, framing it as a core aspect of a new Russian narrative.

• Ukraine is grappling with challenges as winter sets in. Amidst low ammunition and personnel reserves, the discord between Ukrainian and Western officials is apparent. The delay in US aid and wavering Western support heightens the complexity of the situation.

Russia-Ukraine

• Talks with Russia show little sign of progress, with both sides reluctant to compromise. While keeping communication channels open remains important, a viable solution seems elusive given  the uncompromising stance from both parties.

• Despite bipartisan support in the US, aid to Ukraine faces hurdles, and Europe is slow in providing critical resources. The situation underscores the importance of shared responsibility for Ukraine's defence amidst geopolitical challenges.

• Navigating continued negotiations is crucial. Allies must carefully consider the costs and the future trajectory of the conflict. A united front is essential to support Ukraine and work towards a sustainable resolution.

Armenia-Azerbaijan

• Azerbaijan's recent strategic moves in Nagorno-Karabakh have significantly altered the conflict dynamics, resulting in the displacement of over 100,000 people.

• Azerbaijan is actively expanding control and strategically blocking vital transportation corridors. Recent talks offer hope for progress, but unresolved issues surrounding borders and corridors continue to pose challenges.

• Recent talks have shown promise, including a significant development in the form of a prisoner exchange. However, complex issues related to border demarcation and corridor access remain unresolved.

Armenia-Azerbaijan

• If negotiations falter, Azerbaijan may grow impatient, potentially leading to further incursions. The prospect of a land grab, such as seizing a vital transit route, could provoke global opposition and complicate Azerbaijan's international standing.

• In an environment where global norms regarding the use of force are strained, the possibility of renewed conflict remains a concern. Western states, Iran, and Russia closely monitor the situation, understanding its potential impact on regional stability.

• While an outright attack seems risky, Azerbaijan is exploring alternative transit routes through Iran. The international community remains vigilant as Armenia and Azerbaijan navigate these delicate negotiations, considering the broader geopolitical implications.