According to a recent online publication by Richard D. Hooker, Jr., a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council, the Ukrainian General Staff is planning a counteroffensive to retake Crimea, but some experts doubt its feasibility. 

The operation would involve crossing the Dnipro River, fighting through Russian defenses, and facing strong artillery without adequate air power. 

However, historical examples prove that conquering Crimea is not impossible, as evidenced by the successful conquests of various invading armies including the Huns, Mongols, British, Bolsheviks, and Germans. 

According to Hooker, the offensive may involve shaping operations using drones, artillery strikes, and special forces to weaken Russian defenders. 

Rather than launching a costly direct assault on Crimea, Ukraine has the potential to isolate it by cutting off military support and starving it of resources. 

Hooker highlights that success in capturing Crimea would dramatically undermine Russian morale and encourage further international support for Ukraine.

The counteroffensive, if launched in June, could potentially conclude by the end of summer, leaving the Crimean Bridge as the only ground resupply option for Russia.

Hooker notes that Ukraine's progress could force the Russian Black Sea Fleet to withdraw from Crimea. 

Putin is likely to respond to these setbacks by rekindling nuclear weapon threats and calling for international intervention to pressure Kyiv into a ceasefire and a negotiated settlement, allowing him to retain control over parts of Ukrainian territory. 

In the event of Ukrainian troops making significant advancements, the country's leaders are unlikely to be inclined towards negotiations that might compromise the hard-earned progress achieved on the battlefield.

According to Hooker, Ukraine's armed forces must ensure adequate logistics, operational security, and successful deception operations.

The Russians must continue to demonstrate flawed generalship, low morale, and an inability to synchronize combat power at points of decision, while the Ukrainian General Staff must exhibit true operational art capabilities. 

Hooker notes that, despite potential tactical setbacks, the odds are in Ukraine's favour, and the end of the war appears to be gradually approaching, bringing forth a highly promising outlook from Ukraine's perspective.