NATO's Next Decade
NATO's Next Decade
Redefining NATO
According to a recent analysis in Foreign Policy, NATO, previously criticized as a "Cold War relic," has regained significance in countering an expansionist Russia.
Foreign Policy points out that, facing new challenges from Russia, China, and Iran, NATO must adapt its approach and redefine its role, including addressing Ukraine's membership and countering China's influence.
Foreign Policy sought the perspectives of nine prominent experts to provide insights on how a revitalized NATO can address these challenges. The valuable opinions of these experts may provide guidance for NATO leaders in future endeavours.
Ukraine: Safeguarding Stability
According to Anders Fogh Rasmussen, it is crucial to acknowledge that peace and stability in Europe depend on a secure and independent Ukraine, necessitating its inclusion in NATO.
While some leaders may be hesitant to extend an invitation while the conflict persists, it is essential to avoid giving Vladimir Putin the incentive to prolong the war.
Dmytro Kuleba notes that while Ukrainians fight against Russian invaders, gaining valuable defence experience, their strength and contributions make Ukraine a valuable ally capable of safeguarding NATO's eastern flank.
Enhancing Defence Capabilities
According to Kristi Raik, Russia's war against Ukraine is leading to a power shift in NATO's northeastern Europe, from the Nordic countries to the Baltic states to Poland, resulting in a stronger alliance capable of deterring the Russian threat.
Angela Stent highlights that NATO must encourage member states, particularly the Baltic states and Poland, to bolster their defence capabilities, including cyber defence and readiness for unconventional threats.
Collaboration between NATO and the EU is crucial to ensure the continent's security in the face of evolving threats, as pointed out by Liana Fix.
Securing NATO's Future
According to Ulrich Speck, the potential reelection of former US President Donald Trump in 2024 raises concerns during NATO leaders' discussions about the bloc's future.
Speck believes that without US engagement, the value of the alliance diminishes in deterring the Kremlin, and Europe lacks the military strength and strategic unity to effectively counter a determined adversary.
Germany, as Europe's economic heavyweight, could play a pivotal role by significantly increasing its defence spending and becoming a key backup power, fostering a stronger trans-Atlantic relationship and bolstering European security.
Countering Chinese Threats
A. Wess Mitchell notes that NATO's recognition of China as a security challenge is a crucial step, but concrete actions are now needed.
This includes developing contingency plans for a potential US-China war, taking joint positions on China, and countering Chinese activities that undermine NATO's military mission.
Additionally, NATO must strengthen its defence of the Euro-Atlantic region, particularly in Eastern Europe, to effectively deter and respond to potential threats.
Expanding NATO's Security Agenda
According to Ben Hodges, NATO needs a fully integrated, permanent architecture for early warning, command-and- control, and defeating incoming threats, along with multinational exercises to test capabilities in a contested environment.
Investment in next-generation fighter aircraft, airborne warning systems, ship-borne sensors, and weapons systems is necessary, while passive defence measures and disruptive technologies should be explored.
Anne-Marie Slaughter highlights the need for NATO to address not only collective security against Russia but also subtler security threats, while emphasizing the importance of prioritizing cooperative security networks.