The High Price of Losing Ukraine
The High Price of Losing Ukraine
Pre-February 2022
According to the Institute for the Study of War:
Minimal Threat Perception: Before the 2022 Russian invasion, non-Baltic NATO states faced negligible military threats, enjoying a sense of security with Russian ground forces strategically positioned at a considerable distance.
Air Defence Vulnerabilities: Despite Russia's advanced air defence, vulnerabilities in Eastern European gaps created strategic opportunities for NATO, offering potential advantages in disrupting Russian air defence systems.
Geopolitical Dynamics of Crimea: Russia's possession of Crimea held significant geopolitical implications, potentially reshaping the Black Sea's dynamics if Ukraine could reclaim control, alleviating pressure on NATO.
Economic Promise of a Victorious Ukraine: A triumphant Ukraine, with modern infrastructure, has the potential to economically support its military, emerging as an independent contributor to NATO and a dynamic force in the global economy.
Current Situation (December 12, 2023)
Strategic Success and Defensive Triumph: Ukraine's successful defence not only secured eastern borders but also engaged almost half a million Russian troops, neutralizing an immediate threat to NATO and underscoring strategic success.
Occupation Challenges and Resource Drain: Ongoing military occupation strained Russian forces, but efforts to control Belarus hint at potential future challenges, raising questions about the sustainability of their aggressive endeavors.
NATO's Evolving Defence Strategy: The war significantly impacted NATO's strategy, providing a strategic window to manage existing threats. However, realistic preparedness is crucial amid uncertainties surrounding Russian intentions.
Strategic and Economic Implications: Balancing the costs of maintaining defence measures with global priorities poses intricate challenges, prompting a careful consideration of the broader implications on strategic and economic fronts.
Hypothetical Situation if Russia Fully Occupies Ukraine
According to the Institute for the Study of War:
Heightened Threat Dynamics: In a hypothetical scenario of a complete Russian victory, threats intensify as forces could advance to the western Ukrainian border, demanding heightened strategic readiness to address evolving challenges.
Post-Victory Military Landscape: Moscow's commitment to post-war military expansion introduces uncertainties, including the potential deployment of advanced air defence systems, adding complexity to NATO's strategic and financial calculus.
Full Ukrainian Victory
According to the Institute for the Study of War:
Geopolitical Impacts of a Ukrainian Victory: Emphasizing the geopolitical significance of a Ukrainian victory, including the potential transformation of the Black Sea and reshaping the strategic landscape in favour of NATO.
Holistic Independence for Ukraine: A triumphant Ukraine could play a pivotal role in shaping the region, contributing not only to NATO's security but also becoming a key player in the global economy, underlining the broader implications of Ukraine's independence.
Conclusion
ISW’s conclusion advocates for a nuanced perspective on the military-strategic and financial complexities of the Russian war in Ukraine. It calls for a realistic discussion about the financial costs of supporting Ukraine and a careful evaluation of the trade-offs involved, serving as a starting point for a broader conversation on the multifaceted consequences of the conflict.
This multifaceted analysis encourages stakeholders to consider the intricate web of geopolitical, military, and economic factors shaping the conflict's outcomes and their far-reaching implications.