In his recent work, Duncan Allan, an associate fellow of Chatham House, examined how a specific scenario, assuming the end of active conflict in Ukraine with Russia's defeat and the subsequent replacement of Vladimir Putin as the country's president, could impact Russia's political and economic systems, as well as its foreign policy orientation.

According to the author, although core features of Russia's state system would be largely recognizable on the basis of what is seen today, even a managed succession to a post-Putin leadership would unleash considerable uncertainty. 

Allan believes that Russia's political system would remain essentially authoritarian. 

The guiding principles would be top-down stability and order, although the potential for elite divisions would be real. 

According to the author, Russia's economic system would continue to be based on a state-dominated mechanism of rent distribution, reliant on the oil price and unlikely to generate high GDP growth. 

Allan points out that economic relations with the West would be greatly reduced, pushing Russia towards even closer ties with Asia. 

A radical reappraisal of foreign policy would be unlikely without far-reaching domestic political change. 

Russia's new leaders would still view their country as a great power despite its reduced circumstances. 

Foreign policy would range from authoritarian retrenchment to hard-line isolationism. 

In conclusion, Allan emphasizes that Western governments would encounter significant difficulties in understanding the inner workings and decision-making processes of a state system that could potentially become even more opaque and inaccessible by 2027. 

If a hard-line authoritarian and isolationist leadership were to assume power, the challenge of effectively communicating with them would significantly increase. 

Western governments would have to monitor potential instability in Russia due to economic underperformance, which could generate political strains.